Predictors of infection, symptoms development, and mortality in people with SARS-CoV-2 living in retirement nursing homes.

INTRODUCTION: Since the start of the pandemic, millions of people have been infected, with thousands of deaths. Many foci worldwide have been identified in retirement nursing homes, with a high number of deaths. Our study aims were to evaluate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the retirement nursing homes, the predictors to develop symptoms, and death. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a retrospective study enrolling all people living in retirement nursing homes (PLRNH), where at least one SARS-CoV-2 infected person was present. Medical and clinical data were collected. Variables were compared with Student's t-test or Pearson chi-square test as appropriate. Uni- and multivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate variables' influence on infection and symptoms development. Cox proportional-hazards model was used to evaluate 30 days mortality predictors, considering death as the dependent variable. We enrolled 382 subjects. The mean age was 81.15±10.97 years, and males were 140(36.7%). At the multivariate analysis, mental disorders, malignancies, and angiotensin II receptor blockers were predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection while having a neurological syndrome was associated with a lower risk. Only half of the people with SARS-CoV-2 infection developed symptoms. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and neurological syndrome were correlated with an increased risk of developing SARS-CoV-2 related symptoms. Fifty-six (21.2%) people with SARS-CoV-2 infection died; of these, 53 died in the first 30 days after the swab's positivity. Significant factors associated with 30-days mortality were male gender, hypokinetic disease, and the presence of fever and dyspnea. Patients' autonomy and early heparin treatment were related to lower mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: We evidenced factors associated with infection's risk and death in a setting with high mortality such as retirement nursing homes, that should be carefully considered in the management of PLRNH.

The forgotten sub-regional COVID-19 response layer. The case of the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region.

The response to the COVID-19 pandemic have been driven by epidemiology, health system characteristics and control measures in form of social/physical distancing. Guidance, information and best practices have been characterized by territorial thinking with concentration on national health system and social contexts. Information was to a large extent provided from global entities such as the World Health Organization (WHO), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and others. This bipolar response mechanism came to the detriment of regional and sub-regional levels. The development of the global pandemic was evaluated in terms of the performance of single countries without trying to reflect on possible regional or sub-regional results of similar characteristics in health system and social contexts. To have a clearer view of the issue of sub-regional similarities, we examined the WHO, Eastern Mediterranean Region. When examining the development of confirmed cases for countries in the region, we identified four different sub-groups similar in the development of the pandemic and the social distancing measure implemented. Despite the complicated situation, these groups gave space for thinking outside the box of traditional outbreaks or pandemic response. We think that this sub-regional approach could be very effective in addressing more characteristics and not geographically based analysis. Furthermore, this can be an area of additional conceptual approaches, modelling and concrete platforms for information and lessons learned exchange.